It's been a busy few months for me, with deadlines looming it's been difficult to do anything for myself other than playing FIFA and getting wasted. As satisfying as it was taking Barnet from League 2 to the Premier League title in 4 seasons, and as happy as I am that I've all but completed my dissertation whilst over the legal driving limit, it's nice to be writing for leisure again.
Recently, I have been trying my hand at football betting, and whilst I am still a relative novice in terms of experience, and indeed, judgement, I thought it would be interesting to see how I get on predicting matches and finding the best value. Please note at this stage that I am doing this as an experiment, and if anyone actually reads this, probably shouldn't take these tips as gospel. There are plenty of free tipsters on Twitter and Facebook that are professionals and really know their stuff, their win percentages are high and they always seem to be in profit (Gotta love free publicity).
Anyway, without further adieu, here are what I would consider my value selections for this weekend's Premier League games. All bets are made with Bet365. Check odds against Oddschecker.com for the best deals and returns.
Norwich/Reading- Under 2.5 Goals- £10.00 Stake- £20.00 Return- +1.00 Profit
Reason: 62.5% of Norwich's home matches this season have been under 2.5 goals, including two 0-0 draws in their previous 4 home matches. Norwich have won only 1 of their last 8 games, with Reading standing at 0 wins from the last 8 matches. Whilst Reading are a shoe-in to go down, Norwich can still survive. Norwich will want to win, but will be weary of a Reading team who are still clinging on for dear life. I can't realistically see anything past Under 2.5 goals, and at evens odds, this for me, is very good value for money.
West Ham- -0.5 Asian
Handicap- £10.00- £21.50 Return- +1.15 Profit
Reason: Despite Wigan's reputation as the Relegation Battle's answer to Houdini, I simply do not see them getting a result at Upton Park. West Ham have had three difficult matches recently and picked up draws in all three of them, whilst being desperately unlucky to not pick up a win against Manchester United mid-week. Carroll and Diame are both on good form, and I think if they play well, the Hammers could get a very solid 2+ goal win. Wigan on the other hand haven't had a bad run, with only 3 losses in their last 8 (V Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool), but with the FA Cup Final looming, Martinez will have squad rotation on his mind and I believe this is the perfect opportunity for West Ham to take advantage and seal their Premier League safety, and possibly a Top 10 finish. At just over evens, this is also a very good value bet that only requires a +1 goal West Ham win.
The following bets are other bets I consider good value, but that I am less confident about.
Manchester United- YES
Clean Sheet- £10.00-£21.00- +1.10 Profit
Manchester United- -2
Asian Handicap- £10.00- £22.00 Return- + 1.20 Profit
I would not recommend both of these bets on at the same time, but I think that Villa are the most likely team outside of the bottom 3 to go down. Manchester United are formidable at home, and I do not see them conceding against a young Aston Villa side that have been extremely poor this season. United will want to increase the gap on Man City (especially if City get a result at Spurs on Sunday) after what happened last season. Although I don't see United slipping up, Fergie will want a strong, dominating performance. I see a 3+ goal win for United as a very realistic possibility, and at just over evens, is once again good value.
Tottenham/City- Over
2.5 Goals- £10.00 - £19.00 Return- +0.90 Profit
Bale to Score Any Time-
£10.00- £24.00 Return- + 1.40 Profit
10 years ago, this game would have been nothing more than a dull mid-table affair, today it's one of the biggest fixtures of the season. City go into this game wanting to keep the Premier League title race alive, even though many must already believe it is out of their grasp. Tottenham on the other hand, have to keep the pressure on Arsenal who dropped two points mid-week, and can take advantage of that with a big home win against City, who have an FA Cup Final (their only chance at silverware left this season) to focus on. I see this game being a 2:1 win for either team, it's too close to call, but I can't see either team not going for the win in this one. With Over 2.5 goals being a very realistic outcome, just under evens is good value.
The second bet would purely depend on whether Bale is fit, or AVB is just throwing up a smokescreen for Mancini's boys. My reasoning for this is that Bale loves the big games, and is extremely capable of scoring fantastic goals as we have seen this season. If Bale is fit, I wouldn't put it past him scoring in this one. He's already scored against United,Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham and Inter this season, I'm sure he'd love to add City to that list.
The final games that I will post will not have any explanation, I have researched them, but it is 00:15 and I want to go to sleep. These are games I am less confident about, but aren't bad shouts if you fancy a punt.
Manchester United-
Over 3.5 Team Goals- £10.00- £35.00 Return- +2.50 Profit
Liverpool/Chelsea-
Over 3.5 Goals- £10.00-£26.20 Return- +1.62 Profit
Chelsea- Draw No
Bet- £10.00- £25.00 Return- +1.50 Profit
West Ham/Wigan- 2nd Half Most Goals- £10.00- £20.50 Return- +1.05 Profit
Sunderland- Draw No Bet- £10.00- £23.70 Return-
+1.37 Profit
Swansea- Win by 1 Goal-
£10.00- £40.00 Return- +3.00 Profit
Stoke- Draw No Bet- £10.00- £23.70 Return- +1.37
Profit
Thank you for reading, hopefully I'll get back to my regular blogs soon, once everything is handed in. That will be the 8th of May, but I will try to get a few more posted before then if I can.
All the best everybody, and thank you for reading!
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